Is There a Timetable for Withdrawing Troops From Iraq? You Bet There Is. The November Elections!

While the Senate debates whether or not there should be a timetable for withdrawing troops from Iraq, you can bet that the planning has already begun for the announcement of a major troop reduction. There are already signs that a troop withdrawal is being planned. Now how dumb can the Democrats be? They should know that the timing will be based on political expediency not the facts on the ground or anything else. Would Karl Rove ever do anything that wasn't calculated to have the biggest positive effect for George W Bush and the Republicans? In much the same way that Richard Nixon prolonged the Vietnam War another four years announcing victory and withdrawal just before he was re-elected to a second term, Rove has probably calculated the announcement of a major troop withdrawal from Iraq to time precisely with the critical November elections.

President Bush will announce that, since the Iraqi government and army is now in a better position to help itself, it is now time to withdraw a major number of troops. Of the 132,000 troops stationed there now, I would guesstimate that he will announce a withdrawal of 40,000 to 50,000 troops. This announcement will probably take place a month before the November 2 elections. Pulling this rabbit out of the hat will guarantee that the Republicans will maintain their majorities in the House and the Senate thus dooming the Democrats to irrelevancy once again. Only John Murtha has realized that this is probably the game plan. Thus Bush and the successful Iraqi War effort will dominate the news leading up to election day. On election day you will see split screens on Fox and CNN with half the screen devoted to the arriving troops, proudly saluting from the bow of a ship while their wives and families wait with open arms, and the other half devoted to the incoming election results. There will be a political spectacle and extravaganza the likes of which have never been seen before with President George W Bush leading the parade. Naturally his approval rating will jump a full 20 points as Republican after Republican gains reelection. The Democrats will be cast as gloom and doom sayers, not having faith in the ultimate victory which George W will assure us is at hand - but not quite at hand as there is still some more hard slogging left to do.

Of course, the Bush Administration never intends  to leave Iraq completely, and this is really what the debate should be about. The behemoth military bases being built all over Iraq and the gigantic embassy will require a significant amount of manpower. I would guesstimate on the order of 50,000 men and women. So while Bush will order troop withdrawals, he will say nothing about leaving Iraq completely. No, he intends to stay there on a permanent basis. Regarding the announced withdrawals, of course, he always has the option of retrurning part or all of the troops withdrawn after the election. I can't believe the Democrats are going to let themselves be snookered again! They should be getting out in front of this telling the American people just what Karl Rove and his supporting cast have in mind. A production of colossal proportions that will make Cleopatra and Ben Hur not to mention Gone with the Wind pale in comparison. Political Theater to the Max! TV airwaves will be exclusively devoted to this pageant. Patriotic fervor will be rampant with everyone supporting our returning heroes and by implication the Bush Administration and Republicans up for reelection. No Democrat will dare throw cold water on this parade.

Does anyone doubt that Bush, Cheney, Rove et al have it within their power to pull this off? No, it is a scenario completely under their control. They need a dramatic gesture to keep control of the House and Senate and, with the American people clamoring to bring the troops home, this will be the Mutha of All Dramatic Gestures. Republicans will be wrapping themselves in the American flag, shouting "job well done" to the troops; Fox News and CNN will be interviewing the families of the returning heroes and glory, thanks to George Bush, will reign down on America with her amber waves of grain. The troops and their families will be willing bit players in this drama.

The other dimension of the Rovian timetable is the completion of the megabases and embassy in Iraq since, once they are completed, American forces can withdraw there for permanent residency. They will be there for the long haul. They are the only construction projects in Iraq that are on schedule for completion. Since the completion date for the embassy is June 2007, it will require that a substantial number of US troops remain at least until that date. The completion dates may not coincide with the fall elections, but no worries. When they are finished and suitable for occupancy by our occupation forces, another troop reduction can be announced! Meanwhile, the war is going as planned although this is not the impression given to the media which is obsessed with the nonconsequential random violence. A major goal is to get the American casualty rate down to an acceptable level in the eyes of the American people. I'm sure it's acceptable now in the eyes of the Bush Administration and the military. The American casualty rate will inevitably drop as the Iraqis stand up more troops and take over more responsibilities. As far as American military strategy is concerned, Iraqis blowing up other Iraqis is of little consequence as long as no faction is able to mass troops and to undertake more than random violence. If any  faction starts to take over too much territory as in Ramadi and Fallujah, the American military will go in to bust it up thus reducing the insurgency to tactics which have no consequence or larger stategic implications. So from the American point of view (the Bush Administration's not the media's) the war is going well, the insurgents are reduced to relatively ineffective tactics, the bases and embassy are nearing completion, American casualties are going down, the Iraqi Government is in place and the Iraqi Army is standing up.

The next phase is troop reductions and withdrawal into fortified bastions (secure sanctuaries) and dividing up the oil fields as the spoils of war. Once American troops are not being dramatically killed, Iraqi on Iraqi violence will fall off the American radar screen for two reasons. Americans don't really care about Iraqi casualties, and no American news crews will dare to roam Iraq reporting on the situation without military escorts which, of course, will be refused them because it's in the Bush Administration's interests not to have Iraqi violence reported.

Get ready for the Karl Rove directed extravaganza leading up to election day. There will be an orgy of patriotic feelings, people supporting our troops to the hilt as they parade heroically home, saluting from the prow of aircraft carriers as bands play Souza marches. Get ready for red, white and blue bunting, yellow ribbons, Republican politicians wrapping themselves in the American flag, George W Bush standing tall and finally vindicated (as orchestrated by Karl Rove.) No expense will be spared as Americans troop to the polls exhilarated by the split screens on their new high definition plasma TVs at home showing returning troops on one side and election returns on the other. Democrats will be portrayed as hapless weenies who cut and run not daring to think big and live big as Americans should. It's American destiny and American glory and George W Bush is our leader!

Comments

[bibliochef]

Nice pictures. I am trying to gather ideas for how food bloggers (and others) might support the folks starting a hunger strike on July 4th in opposition to the war in Iraq... . Let me know your ideas at the site? It is Cooking with Ideas -- http://cookingwithideas.typepad.com/cooking_with_ideas/