Today Vietnam is a troubled nation. After signing the Bilateral Trade Agreement with the US in 2000 followed by large economic growth rates in the early 2000s and becoming a member of the World Trade Organization in 2006, growth has faltered in the last year, inflation has soared and workers have shown their dissatisfaction by numerous strikes, almost unheard of in a communist country. The following is An's report:
Vietnam is more open now compared to 30 years ago. Like any communist country, the government is more talk than action. Corruption is the way of life in Vietnam. As a foreigner, you will get a taste of it as soon as you get off the plane. Traffic police are making money by extorting motorists for any minor offenses. Local governments are using all kind of tricks to get the land from farmers for ridiculously low prices and reselling it for incredible profit. The people there said that the government is making more profit from selling land than drug pushers are making selling drugs. Many farmers felt that they had been cheated and held protests against the government. Instead of helping the farmers resolve their problems, the government arrested them for social misconduct! The gap between the rich and the poor is widening. People who have good connections with the government or government officers are usually rich. They live in luxury, while the working class and farmers are struggling everyday to make a living.
All the leaders in Vietnam make the same commitment when they take office. Fighting corruption is at the top of their agenda. However, the reporters who reported on corruption are in jail without trial.
There are 3 basic infrastructures that desperately need improvement, but for 30 years, still remain backward.
1) Transportation - There are no highways in Vietnam. Most of the roads are in bad shape. Road construction contracts are usually granted to those with government connections with the result being poor quality. They quickly deteriorate just as soon as they're in service. The bridges that were built during the French occupation are still being used. A journey from Ho Chi Minh City to Ca Mau City is only 360 Km [224 miles], but would take at least 8 hours drive by car. Traffic jams in HCM City are a nightmare as anyone who witnesses one can attest. The toxic fumes and noise from the motors make the traffic look worse than any war scene that I have ever seen. During the monsoon season (rainy season), it adds more misery to travelers.
2) Energy - The first power station was built in 2000. It was supposed to be completed by 2006 and cost 4.5 billion USD. This station is intended to supply energy to the Southwestern parts of Vietnam. During the construction, many officers were jailed for bribery, mishandling cash, etc ... It did not get completed until early 2008. The station is facing quality problems and is constantly breaking down. Vietnam is an oil producing country but is continually facing energy shortages. With frequent power blackouts, it has affected many businesses and manufacturing companies.
3) Communication - The telephone and cable wires hanging from the streets in Vietnam resemble a spider web. It's really amazing how the technicians can manage to find what they're looking for. Telephone fees in Vietnam are the highest in the world. Calling in and out of Vietnam costs from USD 0.50 - 1.10 per minute. The clarity of the voice is heavily dependent on the weather at the time.
Vietnam receives more than 6 billion USD per year from Vietnamese overseas who are sending money to their relatives. The government constantly reports good earnings from trade. They receive billions of dollars from investors every year and in loans from IMF for rebuilding Vietnam. However, the country still remains one of the most backward countries in South East Asia. We just wonder where all the money went.
The government is great at making one excuse after another for the problems in Vietnam. Nevertheless, they make it quite clear that the communist party in Vietnam is intelligent, righteous and always has good plans for the country. But there is much lying by party members who do not practice what they preach. Vietnam used to have a lot of resources. Our land and forests are envied by many countries around the world. After 30 years of bad management, our forests are being destroyed, all rivers are polluted by industrial waste, our resources are being depleted. A few people are getting very rich but the majority are still poor.
Our people can only hope and pray that someday the government will care enough to mend their ways and improve the future of Vietnam.
Hope this will give you some idea of what's happening in Vietnam at the present.
Vietnam is trying to follow the model of other Asian countries by achieving a rapid growth rate, attracting foreign investment and becoming a manufacturing based, export oriented economy. The communist government promises investors stability above all else, but it hasn't quite worked out that way according to the Asia Sentinel:
A year ago, in August 2007, Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung confidently addressed a gathering of regional businessmen at an Asean 100 Leadership Forum at the Melia Hotel in downtown Hanoi.
He gave a typically punchy speech about how Vietnam valued its membership in Asean, how it was increasingly integrating with the global economy after its recent induction into the World Trade Organisation,and most importantly, how its economy was humming along nicely with continued high rates of growth and investment.
At the end, after answering a few soft questions, Dung paused, eye-balled his admiring audience, and said: "One thing I can guarantee you – political stability."
The executives en masse applauded loudly and vociferously, almost as if they were cheering a stock market bull run, not the unelected prime minister of an undemocratic communist regime.
Nothing particularly unusual about that, of course – businessmen the world over love the stability and certitude of authoritarian states like Vietnam, China and Singapore.
What a difference a year can make. The suits are not cheering Vietnam's performance so much these days and the country's chastened prime minister is not sounding half so confident. Since Dung spoke last August [2007], not only has Vietnam's economy stopped purring, but its political stability is no longer guaranteed. Nor, for that matter, is the PM’s own position as secure as it appeared back then.
In a nutshell, Vietnam's economy has crashed and Dung's government has failed to ameliorate the effect on the general population, which has, in turn, grown more disillusioned with the performance of the ruling Vietnam Communist Party.
From the economic point of view, the most ominous and continuing manifestation of that disillusionment is the ever-increasing number of strikes all over the country. At the latest count, there have been around 400 since the start of the year, most of them at manufacturing plants owned by foreign investors.
Last week, in a typical stoppage, 14,000 workers at a South Korean shoe factory near Ho Chi Minh Citydowned tools in response to the management's failure to adequately increase their wages. The workers want $18 a month more, but the company has only offered $12. It may not sound like much of a difference, but when workers on wages of around $50 to $60 a month, are faced with inflation of around 30 percent, it is critically important. Representatives from top investing nations from South Korea,Taiwan, Singapore and Japan have told Dung's team to do something about Vietnam's surging labor unrest before their companies cut back on their investments or even start to pull out.
Last month, Theodore Huang, who heads Taiwan's Chinese National Association of Industry and Commerce, complained at a business seminar that the spread of wildcat strikes was the most critical aspect of Vietnam's current economic downturn. Already, the volatile labor scene is starting to negatively affect investment. Officially, despite the recent economic slide, Hanoi still claims that foreign direct investment reportedly worth more than US$30 billion so far this year – continues to pour in.
The reality is somewhat different because the official figure only indicates registered or planned investments, which may or may not materialize. When it comes to actual disbursed investments, the amount is just US$5 billion – and that was committed before the crash. There are now signs that many companies are pausing before making further investments.
But for the government, the immediate problem is how to appease restless workers, disgruntled rural peasants, and the small but increasingly influential urban middle-class while maintaining social and political stability. It will not be easy. Internal surveys conducted by the communist partyitself have indicated that an astonishing 80 percent of the population now think the party is no longer serving the needs of the people.
Perhaps it is not so astonishing. After all, since the prime minister's speech a year ago, inflation has risen every month, hitting 27 percent in July, the highest recorded figure since 1991. Food prices rose by 73 percent, petrol and gas by 46 percent, rents and housing by 25 percent.
Even Prime Minister Dung is having his problems staying in power, and the Vietnamese currency, the dong, is losing its value with respect to the dollar. The following is from Time World:
A year ago, Vietnam was being hailed as the next Asian miracle, a success story to match the rise of the Asian tigers of the 1990s and more recently the stunning growth of China and India. Thanks to economic reforms, the communist country was attracting record amounts of foreign investment. The economy expanded by 8.5% last year—among the fastest rates in the region—and housing prices doubled and tripled, driven up in part by frantic buyers who stood in line to snap up condos before they had even been built. The country's nascent stock market was minting millionaires. In Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, their flashy new cars clogged roads better suited for bicycles.
But a funny thing happened on the way to prosperity. Halfway through 2008, Vietnam's authoritarian government finds itself grappling with soaring prices, collapsing markets and an increasingly restive workforce. Inflation, now running at an annual rate of 25%, is eating up much of the gains made by citizens over the last several years. Vietnam's stock market, which has fallen 58.5% since January, currently holds the unhappy title of being the worst-performing in the world in the last 30 days. Citing the government's difficulty in reining in inflation, Moody's, which grades creditworthiness, lowered Vietnam's ratings outlook last week to negative from positive. Poor ratings signal that banks may have trouble meeting their financial obligations, undermining investors' confidence in the country. In a nutshell, the economy overheated and the government was too slow to respond, says Jonathan Pincus, chief economist for the United Nations Development Program in Vietnam. "It's how we got into this problem," he says.
Inflation is causing trouble worldwide, of course, but it's particularly acute in Vietnam, where prices for virtually everything, from food to fuel to housing, have been spiking. Much of Vietnam's recent growth has been driven by its expanding manufacturing sector, but now assembly line workers' salaries are being outpaced by basic living costs. The result has been a rash of strikes—unusual in communist Vietnam—that are hurting the country's image as a haven for multinational companies looking for alternatives to China for manufacturing sites. Over the last six months, there have been more than 300 strikes throughout the country. Most last only a few days, with management usually agreeing to small pay increases. In April, a company that manufactures sneakers for Nike agreed to give workers a 10% increase, or about an additional $6.30 a month. But that amount is not enough to make much of a difference when workers go to the grocery store.
Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung told the country's National Assembly on May 31 that the number of households going hungry has doubled in one year. "The government understands and shares with the people," Dung said. "And sees it is their responsibility to try to best curb inflation." So far, Hanoi has moved to cool the economy by requiring banks to increase their reserves; the central bank has also raised interest rates to 12%. But inflation is being made worse by Vietnam's weakening national currency. The Vietnamese dong has fallen roughly 1.5% against the dollar in the past six months. But the recent dismal economic news is threatening to weaken it further. This past week the dong jumped from 16,120 to the dollar to 18,500 on the black market as traders rushed to put their dong into dollars and gold. The currency swoon makes imports, from food to commodities, more expensive. Jocelyn Tran, whose Ho Chi Minh City company contracts with local factories to supply apparel to U.S. stores, says the price of Chinese-made yarn has jumped 15% this year. "Our factories are absorbing it by cutting out the profit margin," says Tran. Even though some factories have raised wages, she complains that workers are still going on strike.
The government in Hanoi has been slow to tackle some of the problems in part because battle lines are no longer neatly drawn between Communist Party hardliners and the party's more liberal economic reformers. Decision-making has been fragmented to the point of paralysis, says Pincus. For example, no single entity is in control of monetary policy. In a system that works on consensus— not just among the party but committees, ministries and provinces—it has been difficult to get leaders to make tough decisions. "It's always harder to distribute the pain," says Pincus. "It's much easier to distribute the goodies."
To tackle inflation, the government knows it needs to raise interest rates and rein in spending, particularly by state-owned enterprises that have used state financial institutions as their own piggy banks. But any sudden moves can also threaten to strangle businesses and scare away new investors, which Vietnam must avoid if it is to meet its revised 7% growth rate. Still, while the numbers look bad now, Vietnam's long-term economic outlook is good, says Tom Nguyen, head of global markets at Deutsche Bank in Ho Chi Minh City. Some think the government's ability to deal with public dissent swiftly and harshly lessens the threat that strikes will turn into violent protest or will encourage calls for political change. Vietnam remains a stable country of 85 million people with a young and educated workforce. "It is unreasonable for any of us investors to expect this development process not to have challenges," says Nguyen. "But some of the heartache has to fall in the lap of the people who had unrealistic expectations." Unfortunately, most of the heartache will be felt by Vietnam's poor as they struggle to put food on the table.
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